Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 17, 2026. This market prices an extremely unlikely scenario—a pause followed by two consecutive cuts—at just 9¢, implying only a 9% probability despite the massive 5985% annualized yield on the Yes side, which signals severe illiquidity with only $330 in daily volume against $13.7M open interest.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely unlikely scenario—a pause followed by two consecutive cuts—at just 9¢, implying only a 9% probability despite the massive 5985% annualized yield on the Yes side, which signals severe illiquidity with only $330 in daily volume against $13.7M open interest. The 2¢ spread and cliff risk index of 10 indicate thin liquidity and potential resolution uncertainty, while the recent decline from 11¢ to 9¢ over seven days suggests weakening conviction in this pause-pause-cut sequence as market expectations have shifted toward either more aggressive cuts or sustained pauses.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
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sf trade 0x92410744b32432595f784c83740ecef014ff508e8c56c8152405c6d64880ac00 yes 100