Will Carter Jensen win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Carter Jensen win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Carter Jensen's ROY odds have collapsed 70% over the past week (from 33¢ to 10¢), suggesting significant negative information arrived about his prospects, though the extreme 9727% realized volatility and near-zero 24-hour volume indicate illiquidity and potential data artifacts.
Analysis
Carter Jensen's ROY odds have collapsed 70% over the past week (from 33¢ to 10¢), suggesting significant negative information arrived about his prospects, though the extreme 9727% realized volatility and near-zero 24-hour volume indicate illiquidity and potential data artifacts. The 1331% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a massive 19¢ spread reflects classic thin-market dynamics where the 10¢ price may not reflect true consensus. With 247 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, this market remains highly speculative and vulnerable to sharp repricing as Jensen's 2026 season performance materializes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x929caa45b66e4cab42ec9f6c39e21ac817b7c4f0293e008099077ee9d9e428ed yes 100