Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

The Pirates' 4-cent price reflects an extremely low 4% implied probability of winning the 2026 NLCS, yet the market shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.5M in open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position. The extraordinary 4409% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or a liquidity trap, as the risk-adjusted yield of 2205% still vastly exceeds typical market returns, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest limited recent conviction. With 199 days to expiry and a 24 Cliff Risk Index, this contract carries moderate tail risk exposure typical of long-dated sports betting markets.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 National League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 National League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 National League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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