Will Tricia Pridemore be the Republican nominee for GA-11?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a substantial $931k open interest, with only $15 in 24-hour volume and a massive 30¢ spread indicating thin order books. The price has crashed 21 percentage points over seven days (59¢ to 38¢), yet the implied yield on "Yes" remains astronomical at 1,820%, suggesting either severe mispricing or anticipated resolution uncertainty given the market closes in just 33 days on the actual primary date. The 2,926% realized volatility and 6.42 vol ratio are exceptionally high, pointing to potential information arrival or positioning ahead of the nomination, though the neutral regime and low info arrival rate of 3.9/hour don't clearly explain the recent sharp decline.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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