Will 52 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero 24-hour volume despite $754k open interest and a massive 44¢ spread—suggesting the 24¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 448% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than true market conviction, while the sharp 7-day rally from 5¢ to 24¢ combined with 332% realized volatility indicates recent price discovery rather than stable equilibrium. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thinly-traded position market where the low probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether any Trump Fed Chair nominee will clear the 52-vote threshold, though the illiquidity makes the current price unreliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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