Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat?

The Republican contract at 23¢ reflects a heavily Democratic-favored district, yet the 608% implied yield on the Yes side signals acute underpricing relative to realized volatility of 1,228%—suggesting either significant model mispricing or genuine uncertainty about candidate quality and turnout dynamics in this swing-leaning seat. The 4.09 volatility ratio and recent 4-cent price appreciation over seven days indicate growing conviction, though the thin $49.64 daily volume and modest $10.1M open interest raise liquidity concerns for larger position sizing. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be pricing in a Democratic lean while leaving substantial tail-risk premium for Republican upside scenarios.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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