Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at $30,500-$33,000 in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 77¢ spread, making the 41¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The 203.6% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated given the neutral market regime and 931% realized volatility, suggesting the pricing may not reflect true probability—the $30,500-$33,000 range for NDX in December 2026 is roughly 8-12% above current levels, which is plausible but the asymmetric yield skew (204% vs 98%) warrants skepticism. With 258 days to expiry and minimal price movement (43¢ to 41¢ over 7 days), this appears to be a low-conviction, illiquid market where the spread risk outweighs the yield opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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