Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia is priced at an extremely high 95¢ with a 0¢ spread, reflecting near-consensus that the ruling party will retain its parliamentary dominance in the September 2026 election. The asymmetric implied yields are striking—while Yes positions offer only 11.6% return, No positions show a theoretical 4179.7% yield, indicating the market assigns negligible probability to an upset despite the 166-day timeframe. The modest 24-hour volume of $896 against $47M open interest and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 19 suggest this is a relatively illiquid conviction trade where the outcome appears largely predetermined by political fundamentals.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

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