Will the Republican Party win the CA-19 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing CA-19 as heavily Democratic-favored at just 5¢, implying a 95% Democratic win probability, which aligns with the district's historical lean but generates an extreme 3,467% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic asymmetric payoff that attracts long-shot bettors despite thin liquidity ($21.4k open interest). The 2¢ spread and stable price over 7 days suggest the market has settled into consensus, though the 200-day timeline to the 2026 midterms leaves substantial room for political shifts that could dramatically revalue this contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade