Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

The 7¢ price reflects an extremely low 7% probability, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 2756.5% implied yield—a classic asymmetric bet where modest capital could generate outsized returns if Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize by October 2026. With $432k open interest and only $2.4k in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to the position size, creating potential slippage for larger trades and suggesting the market may be underpricing tail risk given Trump's historical Nobel nominations. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled on this valuation, though the 176-day timeframe leaves substantial room for geopolitical developments to shift odds materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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