Will the Democratic Party win the VA-11 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $30,858 in open interest, suggesting the 95¢ price may not reflect true market consensus but rather reflects the last trade executed. The massive 3456% implied yield on the "No" outcome is a classic sign of a thin, lopsided market where minimal capital is needed to move prices dramatically—the 1¢ spread masks severe depth issues. With 201 days until resolution and a neutral regime score, the Democratic lean appears structural to VA-11's demographics rather than driven by current events, but traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price given the complete absence of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade