Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The market has surged dramatically from 46¢ to 78¢ over seven days, reflecting strong conviction that Anthropic will hold the #3 position by end-April 2026, though the extreme 9,437% implied yield on "No" suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on the downside.
Analysis
The market has surged dramatically from 46¢ to 78¢ over seven days, reflecting strong conviction that Anthropic will hold the #3 position by end-April 2026, though the extreme 9,437% implied yield on "No" suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns on the downside. With only $1.08M in 24-hour volume against $7M open interest and just 14 days to resolution, the 3¢ spread masks potential execution challenges, while the 481% realized volatility and 1.9 info arrivals per hour indicate this market remains highly reactive to AI leaderboard developments. The neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (4/10) suggest the outcome hinges on near-term model releases or ranking shifts rather than binary tail events.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9a9f2e581438d70aa64dc664e35d1cc5332c1801cab295c64de719d9feebdd21 yes 100