Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?

This market shows a sharp 16% price appreciation over seven days (57¢ to 66¢) despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the high open interest of $5.7M may be stale or concentrated among few holders. The extreme realized volatility of 510% and lopsided implied yields (151% for Yes vs. 477% for No) indicate significant uncertainty around whether exactly 7 Republicans will retire, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 477%. With 136 days to expiration and an 11¢ spread, this illiquid market appears overpriced on the Yes side given the specificity of the outcome (exactly 7, not 6 or 8) and the high information arrival rate of 3.4 signals per hour suggesting material developments ahead.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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