Will the Republican Party win the FL-11 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing FL-11 as heavily favored at 87¢ with a tight 2¢ spread, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $14.6M open interest, suggesting the price may not reflect true market consensus. The extreme 1221.8% implied yield on the "No" side indicates the market is pricing in a near-certainty Republican win, though this asymmetry combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests potential mispricing or thin liquidity distorting the No contract. With 200 days to expiry and no recent price movement, this market appears stale and may warrant caution until closer to the 2026 election when more campaign dynamics emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade