Will the Democratic Party win the NM-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16k open interest, suggesting the 90¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book. The massive 1637% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of a lopsided market with minimal backing for a Democratic loss, creating substantial cliff risk (9/10) if an unexpected upset occurs. With 201 days to expiration and a 1¢ spread, this appears to be a low-conviction pricing that could shift significantly once the 2026 campaign cycle intensifies and candidate quality becomes clearer.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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