Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 68¢ shows extreme asymmetry in risk-adjusted yields, with the "No" side offering 386% implied yield compared to 85.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant tail risk priced into a Republican victory despite the current Democratic lean. With zero 24-hour volume but $13.9M open interest and a realized volatility of 940%, this market appears illiquid relative to its size, indicating the price may not reflect active trading and could be vulnerable to sharp moves as the 201-day expiry approaches. The 5¢ spread and modest 7-day price appreciation from 64¢ to 68¢ suggest recent modest confidence building in Democratic chances, though the extremely high vol ratio of 8.75 and 2.8 information arrivals per hour indicate this race remains highly uncertain and reactive to campaign developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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