Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (2898% realized vol) with a massive 2366% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep uncertainty about the nomination process or potential liquidity constraints given the modest $6,095 open interest and thin $166 daily volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (2898% realized vol) with a massive 2366% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep uncertainty about the nomination process or potential liquidity constraints given the modest $6,095 open interest and thin $166 daily volume. The 7¢ spread is substantial relative to the 32¢ price, and the high cliff risk index (2) combined with the market's neutral regime indicates significant tail risk as the May 19 primary approaches in just 33 days. The 6.72 vol ratio and 3.6/hour info arrival rate suggest this market is pricing in material incoming information, though the slight downward drift from 34¢ to 32¢ over seven days may reflect consolidation ahead of the nomination.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x9e43dcfb24c8c0f5f0914c45791dcfef6a9a5b2cdeae1be33205f596c5c29562 yes 100