Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Bennett's odds have ticked up 3 cents over seven days to 27¢, reflecting modest bullish momentum despite thin $1,622 daily volume and a relatively wide 2¢ spread on $45k open interest. The asymmetric implied yields—383% for Yes versus 52% for No—signal substantial tail risk pricing, with realized volatility at 253% suggesting the market has experienced significant swings ahead of the October 2026 election. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears fairly valued as a long-shot bet, though the 3.0 cliff risk index warrants caution around early election scenarios that could trigger immediate resolution.

Resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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