Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,239% implied yield on the "Yes" side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $16.8k open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and low conviction among traders. The 6% probability appears disconnected from geopolitical fundamentals—regime change in North Korea within 255 days would represent a historically unprecedented event, yet the market has declined from 7¢ to 6¢ over the past week, indicating slight bearish pressure. The 16 Cliff Risk Index and wide 2¢ spread reflect high uncertainty typical of low-liquidity political prediction markets, making this more of a speculative instrument than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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