Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Polymarket, closing November 1, 2026. The Yankees are priced at a modest 20¢ implied probability for winning the 2026 ALCS, reflecting skepticism about their championship prospects despite substantial open interest of $16.5M.
Analysis
The Yankees are priced at a modest 20¢ implied probability for winning the 2026 ALCS, reflecting skepticism about their championship prospects despite substantial open interest of $16.5M. The extreme 734.8% implied yield on the Yes side signals a significant mismatch between the market price and underlying fundamentals, suggesting either undervaluation or speculative positioning, though the thin 24-hour volume of just $66.17 indicates limited conviction and liquidity constraints that could amplify price swings as we approach the November 2026 resolution date.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x9fad904103db1c1d6a57b80c5ebd0118ca58391675ad7c317fdff3f6866c5ca7 yes 100