Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic probability (93¢) for this safely blue Maryland district, though the 1¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal liquidity and potential staleness in pricing. The No side shows an anomalous 2457% implied yield, indicating the market may be mispriced or illiquid at the extremes—this extreme yield differential (versus 13.9% for Yes) is a red flag for low conviction in the current price. With 197 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 13, the market has adequate time for repricing, but traders should be cautious given the apparent liquidity constraints and the possibility that the 93¢ price reflects limited recent activity rather than genuine market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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