Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing FL-15 as a heavily favored seat at 80¢, but the extreme yield asymmetry—45.6% for Yes versus 730.3% for No—signals severe liquidity constraints on the bearish side, with only $13,109 in open interest across 200 days to expiration. The flat 7-day price action and tight 1¢ spread suggest the market has settled into a stable consensus, though the 4/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk that could trigger sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade