What is the current probability for "Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 19¢ (19% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 612.8% and 33.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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19¢

Bid/Ask 18/19¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $128.226·OI $20,684.417·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0xa3143f9c21ecc7a9b036b4e435f48264ff72019a9e3e60dacff4e615020e7e21

7-day price61 snapshots · 42 regime

20¢19¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 612.8%

IY (No) 33.7%

Adj IY 306%

CRI 4

Overround 1.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	612.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	306%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 2:01:04 AM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa3143f9c21ecc7a9b036b4e435f48264ff72019a9e3e60dacff4e615020e7e21 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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