What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
Leader sits at 87% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 1,750
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
↓ 1,500
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$20K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
205 days
Venue
Polymarket
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 8,000
0xac0b43…33c8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,500
0xa3143f…7e21
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,000
0x1c4fd6…0a13
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,500
0x4fc872…aaa1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,000
0x9775cd…621c
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 3,500
0x42945e…9dfc
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,000
0x4ee2c6…4de0
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000
0x6132cc…918a
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 800
0x717672…1612
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 700
0x9edfa7…4f67
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,500
0x0f0499…3a80
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 1,750
0xe12dfb…add3
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,250
0x766996…229d
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 600
0x72353e…68d2
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 2,750
0x4f7001…f959
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 2,000
0x0d4126…fb6a
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum will fall below $1,500 by the end of 2026, currently attracting 47% probability. The prediction reflects competing pressures: Ethereum faces headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, potential regulatory tightening, and competition from alternative blockchain platforms, which would drive prices downward. Conversely, growing institutional adoption, developments in Ethereum's scaling solutions, and broader cryptocurrency market recovery could push prices higher. The resolution depends primarily on Bitcoin's trajectory, which historically correlates strongly with Ethereum movement, and the outcome of regulatory clarity in major markets by late 2026. Current trading volume ($10,107 in 24 hours) suggests moderate but sustained interest in this particular price threshold. The runner-up outcome at 39% indicates meaningful disagreement about which price range Ethereum will occupy.
- ›Ethereum's historical correlation with Bitcoin means Bitcoin's price path is a primary driver; Bitcoin downside scenarios currently trade at higher volumes than upside scenarios
- ›Regulatory announcements in the US, EU, or Asia regarding cryptocurrency classification and taxation could significantly shift probabilities in either direction
- ›Ethereum's technical upgrades and Layer 2 adoption metrics through 2026 will influence whether the asset retains or loses institutional support
- ›Macroeconomic factors including Federal Reserve policy and inflation trends influence risk-on/risk-off sentiment affecting all crypto assets
- ›The $1,500 threshold represents roughly 40-50% below mid-2024 prices, indicating traders expect either stagnation or meaningful correction rather than growth
What moved the line
- Jun 9↓ 600↓15pp24→9¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5↓ 1,500↑11pp74→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 1,500↑8pp85→93¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 7↓ 1,500↓7pp93→86¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 8↓ 1,000↓6pp29→23¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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