Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

The Sweden Democrats are priced at an extreme 5¢ with a massive 4,656.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market severely underestimates their chances despite recent polling showing them as Sweden's second-largest party. The market shows concerning illiquidity with only $281 in 24-hour volume against $19,883 open interest, and the price has already declined from 6¢ to 5¢ over the past week, indicating potential downward pressure or reduced conviction among holders. With 149 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears mispriced relative to SD's actual electoral prospects, though the thin liquidity warrants caution on position sizing.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade