Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 684% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 48% on the "No" side, suggesting either significant mispricing or very low confidence in a Democratic win in this traditionally Republican district. The $13.5K open interest against only $100 in 24-hour volume indicates illiquid positioning that could create slippage, and the 398% realized volatility combined with a 4.0 cliff risk index signals this contract experiences sharp, unpredictable moves despite 201 days to expiration. The 3¢ bid-ask spread is relatively tight given the low volume, but the neutral regime score and modest 0.7/hour information arrival rate suggest the market may be underreacting to upcoming campaign developments or polling shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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