Will the Democratic Party win the CA-46 House seat?

The market is pricing in overwhelming Democratic dominance at 93¢, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $15.6K open interest, suggesting the position is largely static and illiquid. The extreme 2425% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the tiny 7¢ ask price for Republican victory, creating a massive asymmetry that makes the spread deceptive—this is a classic low-liquidity mispricing where the No side is severely undervalued relative to the cliff risk index of 13. With 200 days to the November 2026 election, this market appears to be pricing CA-46 as a near-certain Democratic hold, but the lack of trading activity and neutral regime score suggest limited conviction behind the consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade