Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?

This Iowa-03 House market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 201 days to expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 14¢ spread on just $1.3M open interest. The Republican "Yes" side displays an unusually high 404% implied yield, suggesting either severe mispricing or very limited liquidity on that side of the contract. The 1190% realized volatility and 6.73 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced dramatic price swings, though the recent 7-day movement from 34¢ to 30¢ suggests modest recent selling pressure that may reflect updated fundamentals about the district's competitiveness.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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