Will the Republican Party win the NJ-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (91%) for Republican victory in NJ-04, yet shows zero trading volume over 24 hours with modest open interest of $31,387, suggesting limited conviction despite the steep odds. The asymmetric implied yields—18% for Yes versus 1,839% for No—reflect the lopsided pricing, though the extreme No yield is largely a mathematical artifact of the low 9% probability rather than genuine opportunity. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a settled market on a traditionally Republican district, but the lack of recent activity warrants caution about price staleness.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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