Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

Michelle Milthorpe's chances have surged 33% over the past week (from 42¢ to 56¢), suggesting significant new information has entered the market, though the 9¢ spread and modest $2.1k daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for such a volatile contract. The extreme realized volatility of 663% and unusually high implied yields (1264% for Yes, 2048% for No) reflect the binary nature and short 23-day timeframe, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns despite Milthorpe's current favorite status. With an information arrival rate of 3.1 events per hour and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market is highly sensitive to late-breaking developments typical of by-election campaigns.

Resolution rules

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade