Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.6M in open interest, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing once trading resumes. The 1,846% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and mathematically unsustainable, indicating either severe mispricing or that the market is functioning primarily as a long-term position holder rather than an active price discovery mechanism. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the Cliff Risk Index of 10 (maximum) warns of potential sudden volatility, particularly as the 2026 election approaches and actual candidate announcements materialize in IL-11, a heavily Democratic district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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