Will the Republican Party win the IN-06 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely strong Republican lean for IN-06 at 91%, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $17.6K open interest suggest minimal recent trading activity and potential liquidity concerns. The asymmetric implied yields—18.1% for Yes versus 1846% for No—reveal a sharp valuation disconnect typical of heavily skewed markets where the minority position commands outsized returns to compensate for low probability. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to reflect structural Republican strength in the district rather than near-term event risk, though the high Cliff Risk Index of 10 warrants monitoring for unexpected political developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade