Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility (645% realized vol) and a notably wide 19¢ spread despite 258 days to expiration, suggesting thin liquidity that the $328k open interest and minimal $20 daily volume fail to support.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility (645% realized vol) and a notably wide 19¢ spread despite 258 days to expiration, suggesting thin liquidity that the $328k open interest and minimal $20 daily volume fail to support. The 241% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the neutral regime, indicating either significant uncertainty about Pantoja's title retention or potential mispricing given the long time horizon and multiple championship opportunities that could occur before year-end 2026. The 4.09 vol ratio and 2.1 info arrivals per hour suggest this market is reactive to UFC news, making it sensitive to near-term fight outcomes rather than reflecting a stable long-term probability.
Also on kalshi at 30¢(Δ -4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0xa8ea8529a2a1907c638a6a23fa47e7397817794a53539f219ccd4c8f9a71f2db yes 100