Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?

The market is pricing an extremely low 14% probability of Albanese losing the Prime Minister position over the next 258 days, yet the Yes side offers an outsized 869% annualized yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk compensation for a low-liquidity contract with only $100 in 24-hour volume. The 3-cent spread and modest $13.7M open interest indicate thin trading conditions, while the recent 2-cent price decline from 16¢ suggests slight deterioration in removal odds, though the neutral regime score (0.5) implies no clear directional momentum. The 6 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as resolution mechanics tied to any cessation of office—even temporary—could create unexpected binary outcomes near expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthony Albanese ceases to be the Prime Minister of Australia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Anthony Albanese's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian government and Anthony Albanese; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade