Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Panama's 3¢ price reflects a heavily underdog positioning with an extreme 16,640% implied yield on a yes resolution, though the zero 24-hour volume and $13.8K open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this bet.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 2/4¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $5·OI $14,504.52·Closes Jun 27, 2026·66d remaining
0xab04b157643c85023622ad9db79bbaa4d472e6e23456b19653a2c29b973641ac
7-day price13 snapshots · 2 regime
4¢3¢ current
Apr 92¢Apr 18

Analysis

4d ago

Panama's 3¢ price reflects a heavily underdog positioning with an extreme 16,640% implied yield on a yes resolution, though the zero 24-hour volume and $13.8K open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this bet. The market has declined 25% over seven days (from 4¢ to 3¢), indicating weakening sentiment, while the 32 Cliff Risk Index flags potential volatility near the June 27 expiration as Group L matches conclude. With 71 days to resolution and Panama facing likely stronger competitors in their group, this appears to be a speculative long-shot position with high yield but correspondingly low probability of success.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17840.5%
IY (No) 17.1%
Adj IY 8920%
CRI 32
Overround 0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)17840.5%
IY (No)17.1%
Adj IY8920%
CRI32
Overround0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:28:37 PM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xab04b157643c85023622ad9db79bbaa4d472e6e23456b19653a2c29b973641ac yes 100

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