Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat?

This Indiana-01 market shows extreme asymmetry with a 683% implied yield on "No" versus 48% on "Yes," despite the 79¢ Democratic price suggesting strong favoritism—a classic sign of illiquidity and wide 10¢ spreads with zero 24-hour volume. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (1047%) and vol ratio (12.01) indicate this market experiences sharp, unpredictable swings, likely driven by sparse information arrival (1.7/h) rather than fundamental shifts, making the modest 5¢ price movement over seven days somewhat deceptive. With 201 days to expiration and only $1.5M open interest, this remains a thin, speculative market where the "No" yield premium reflects the difficulty of actually executing a profitable contrarian position rather than genuine fundamental value.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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