Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,968% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $13,890 in open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted odds rather than genuine probability assessment. The 11¢ price implies just 11% probability for a 28-31 retirement range, yet historical data typically shows 20-40+ House retirements per cycle, making this narrow band plausible enough that the asymmetric yield (1,968% vs. 36.6% for No) appears disconnected from fundamental expectations. With 136 days to resolution and a 906% realized volatility, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish reliable pricing, and the 4¢ spread combined with the high cliff risk index (7) suggests this is a low-conviction, illiquid position where the extreme yield reflects bid-ask dysfunction rather than edge.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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