Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in only a 13% win probability for GA-01, a heavily Republican district, yet shows an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,219.9% for Yes holders—a red flag suggesting the market may be mispriced or illiquid given the modest $423 daily volume against $23.3M open interest. The tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate relatively stable pricing, but the extreme yield asymmetry (1,219.9% vs. 27.2%) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 warrants caution, as this suggests potential volatility or structural imbalance as the market approaches the November 2026 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade