Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

The 22¢ price reflects a low but non-negligible 22% probability of de Moraes leaving Brazil's Supreme Court by end-2026, with an asymmetric risk profile showing 500% implied yield for "Yes" against only 39.8% for "No"—typical of low-probability, high-impact political events. The 286% realized volatility and 1.51 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty despite the flat 7-day price action, though modest $234k daily volume and $15.5M open interest indicate limited liquidity for a 259-day horizon. The 0.5/h information arrival rate and neutral regime score (0.409) suggest the market is pricing in baseline political risk without imminent catalysts, though the cliff risk index of 4 warrants monitoring for sudden developments in Brazilian politics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade