Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rafael López Aliaga's odds have collapsed 28% over seven days (from 18¢ to 13¢), suggesting significant negative news or shifting political sentiment in Peru, though the 51-day window to the April election leaves room for reversal. The extreme implied yield of 4797% on "Yes" positions reflects the sharp discount, but this is partially offset by a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 7 and realized volatility of 2096%, indicating high uncertainty and potential for rapid repricing. With $618k in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity appears adequate, but traders should monitor Peru's political developments closely given the volatile regime and high information arrival rate of 3.5 events per hour.

Resolution rules

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Indicators

Regime

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