Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

The 10-cent price reflects a modest 10% probability for Navalnaya to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, though the asymmetric implied yields (1,867% for Yes vs. 23% for No) suggest significant tail-risk pricing favoring long positions. With $85.5M in open interest against only $402K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is extremely thin relative to the bet size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger trades. The high Cliff Risk Index of 9 combined with 176 days to expiry indicates meaningful uncertainty around the eventual resolution criteria, particularly given the incomplete resolution language mentioning Trump, Zelenskyy, and Netanyahu without clear conditional logic.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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