Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11.5M open interest, suggesting the $0.07 price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 2424.5% implied yield on the Yes side. The 75% price surge over seven days (from 4¢ to 7¢) combined with a narrow 1¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 indicates potential volatility and thin order books that could amplify price swings on modest trading activity. Illinois's strong Democratic lean makes a Republican Senate victory genuinely unlikely, but the astronomical Yes-side yield warrants caution—this could reflect either genuine mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than informed market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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