Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by April 30?

This market is effectively dead with zero 24-hour volume and a 2¢ price reflecting just 2% implied probability, despite an astronomical 95,816% annualized yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity. With only 12 days to expiry and the BVIV needing to touch 30 on a single 1-minute candle (an extremely sensitive resolution criterion), the 4¢ bid-ask spread and $1.16M open interest mask the reality that no one is actively trading this position. The 3,078% realized volatility and 32 Cliff Risk Index suggest this market has experienced extreme price swings historically, but the current stagnation and approaching deadline make this more of a stranded position than a viable prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 on the date specified in the title has a final "Low" value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "Low" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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