Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican win probability of 93%, reflecting SC-03's strong Republican lean, though the 1¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal liquidity for this heavily skewed outcome. The No side shows an extraordinary 2416.7% implied yield, indicating the tiny 7¢ No position is vastly underpriced relative to tail risk, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity for contrarian bettors willing to take Republican losses. With 201 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, this market appears to be pricing in a foregone conclusion rather than genuine uncertainty about the district's competitive dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade