Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

This conjunction market prices in an 87% probability that both ACA credits won't be extended AND Democrats win the House in 2026, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $13,865 open interest suggest minimal liquidity despite the tight 1¢ spread. The extreme 1222% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity—traders betting against both conditions would need massive odds to justify the risk, yet no one is actively trading. With 200 days to expiry and a 55% realized volatility, the market appears to be pricing in high political uncertainty around both the tax credit extension (likely decided well before November 2026) and House control, but the dead volume and asymmetric yields indicate this is a niche position with limited price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025? Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025. A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify. If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect. The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

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