Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026
Leader sits at 81% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shutdown & Democratic Party
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Shutdown & Republican Party
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$18
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
152 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026
Analysis
This 30% probability reflects the combined forecasts that a US government shutdown will occur before the 2026 midterm elections. The significant 20-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (43%) and Polymarket (23%) suggests disagreement about near-term budget negotiations and fiscal deadlines. Government shutdowns typically occur around funding expiration dates—the next major deadline falls in September 2026. Key drivers include the composition of Congress after the November 2024 elections, the willingness of House leadership to use shutdowns as leverage over spending disputes, and historical patterns of last-minute budget deals. Resolution depends on whether Congress passes continuing resolutions or omnibus spending bills before funding lapses, with late August and September 2026 representing the critical decision period when funding deadlines arrive and brinkmanship typically intensifies.
- ›Government funding authority expires September 30, 2026—the primary deadline that would trigger a shutdown if Congress fails to act
- ›Historical shutdown frequency increased during 2015-2019, suggesting political polarization may sustain elevated shutdown risk
- ›Kalshi's 20-point premium over Polymarket indicates possible differences in how each venue weights recent congressional voting patterns or budget negotiation history
- ›The current House composition and leadership's fiscal priorities, which would determine willingness to allow a lapse rather than compromise on spending
- ›Volume concentration in sports contracts rather than political contracts suggests lower overall liquidity and potential pricing inefficiency in the shutdown estimate
What moved the line
- Jun 1Shutdown & Republican Party↑4pp15→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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