Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites at 84¢ in TX-21, but the extreme 955% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity with only $17,864 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The massive cliff risk index of 5 and the asymmetric yield profile (34.6% vs. 955%) suggest this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be reliable, with the "No" price likely distorted by the thin order book rather than reflecting genuine Democratic chances. With 201 days until the November 2026 election, traders should expect significant repricing once the race becomes more concrete and liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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