Will Chris Sale win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Chris Sale win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. This market presents an extreme risk-reward asymmetry with a 2313% implied yield on the Yes side, though the 7% price reflects legitimate fundamental skepticism about Sale winning an NL Cy Young in 2026 given his injury history and age.
Analysis
This market presents an extreme risk-reward asymmetry with a 2313% implied yield on the Yes side, though the 7% price reflects legitimate fundamental skepticism about Sale winning an NL Cy Young in 2026 given his injury history and age. The 13¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity, making the theoretical yield largely illusory—any meaningful position would likely move the price significantly. With 210 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this is a speculative micro-cap bet where the high realized volatility (1548%) suggests previous price swings have been dramatic relative to the thin order book.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xb214d760a9275553a500cbc9106a01d4cfcdfd45f563987601935911154409fe yes 100