Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. South Korea's 21¢ price reflects a modest 21% win probability for Group A, though the extreme 1933.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the market's risk-adjusted assessment (967%).
Analysis
South Korea's 21¢ price reflects a modest 21% win probability for Group A, though the extreme 1933.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the market's risk-adjusted assessment (967%). The market shows healthy liquidity with $17.1M open interest but modest daily volume of $18k and a 5¢ spread, indicating this is a relatively niche betting interest. Notable upward momentum over seven days (18¢ to 21¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 4 warrants caution, as late-stage group stage volatility could trigger sharp repricing closer to the June 11 tournament start.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xb366117d881a5adac00775548d46fe437db5ac77ce1fc8af63a4cd6957c9a70d yes 100