Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Blake Butera win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.6M open interest and a massive 55¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 28¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.6M open interest and a massive 55¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 28¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 380% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely a mispricing artifact of the wide spread rather than genuine opportunity, compounded by the 4,767% realized volatility indicating erratic price discovery. With 247 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this contract remains highly speculative and illiquid for a relatively distant event.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb4fd3d6ea2f5c7ae7ed24179a67d9ff01168e954caafb00623f745f354f1e1f9 yes 100